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Here are two articles using the MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change) model for global warming to examine the potential effects of the Waxman-Markey legislation (cap and trade). The “baseline” (if we do nothing) prediction is an increase of 4.5 0C from 2000 to 2100. The first article examines the change in predictions if the goals of Waxman-Markey are met in the US. The second article shows what happens if various other parts of the world also play along.
It’s important to note that this has nothing to do with “not believing” Global warming or being a “global warming skeptic”. This analysis assumes that global warming will occur, and allows the user to see how changes in human behavior affect it.
Article Part 1: http://masterresource.org/?p=2355
Article Part 2: http://masterresource.org/?p=2367
The skinny: if US meets Waxman-Markey goals (reducing our CO2 emmissions by eighty percent) the global temperature change is reduced a whopping two-tenths of a degree (0.2 0C). It turns out that having other “industrial” nations play along doesn’t help much either - unless Asia is included. Kinda puts the cap-and-trade debate in perspective. I just hope that the effects on the economy are as negligible as the effects on the planet.
The point is not to go for expensive, self-abusive, symbolic gestures that will end up having little if any impact.